Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
$18.4K
$100.55
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9.3K | $9.3K | +$4.67 | 99% 9010-127 (9137) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 63.2¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | +$6.68 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 52.5¢ | $483.97 | $531.8 | +$47.84 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $116.6 | $159.43 | +$42.83 | 57% 881-656 (1537) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $45.26 | $41.54 | -$1.55 | 61% 4514-2866 (7380) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $11.32 | $10.83 | -$0.49 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $4.13 | $4.69 | +$0.56 | 50% 7759-7812 (15571) |
Invested
$9,329.41
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$4.67
Record
99%
9010-127 (9137)
RN1CTRInvested
$8,312.03
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$6.68
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$483.97
Value
$531.8
PnL
+$47.84
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$116.6
Value
$159.43
PnL
+$42.83
Record
57%
881-656 (1537)
Invested
$45.26
Value
$41.54
PnL
-$1.55
Record
61%
4514-2866 (7380)
Invested
$11.32
Value
$10.83
PnL
-$0.49
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$4.69
PnL
+$0.56
Record
50%
7759-7812 (15571)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.