Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 2 Getafe CF?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $490 held · ended Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$489.8

Combined PnL

-$0.22

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 97.4¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$484.03

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$0.42

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.77

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$0.2

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96.6¢	$362.25	$358.13	+$0.94	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$87.39	$86.26	-$1.13	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$37.48	$37.25	-$0.23	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$5.57	$5.77	+$0.2	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$2.39	$2.4	+$0.01	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$362.25

Value

$358.13

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$87.39

Value

$86.26

PnL

-$1.13

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$37.48

Value

$37.25

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.