Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 0 Getafe CF?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 63¢ · $809 held · ended Oct 25

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$808.52

Combined PnL

-$9.69

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 63¢

-28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$756.8

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$4.23

Yes4 traders

Total Value$51.72

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$5.47

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Noavg 87¢	$736.02	$727.56	-$4.23	61% 4514-2866 (7380)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$48.75	$45	-$3.75	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 86¢	$29.24	$29.24	+$0	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.35	$4.13	-$0.22	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.21	$1.55	-$0.66	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.88	$1.05	-$0.83	55% 43532-35822 (79354)

Forecastication2

Invested

$736.02

Value

$727.56

PnL

-$4.23

Record

61%

4514-2866 (7380)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.75

Value

$45

PnL

-$3.75

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$29.24

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.22

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.83

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.