Will Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$49.21

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,137

Combined PnL+$21.54

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,929

Combined PnL+$27.67

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 76¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$20	69% 4251-1917 (6168)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$27.67	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$69.38	$69.69	+$1.31	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 76¢	$28.88	$29.07	+$0.19	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76¢	$6.33	$6.38	+$0.04	56% 9207-7357 (16564)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$3,039.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,723.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$27.67

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$69.38

Value

$69.69

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$29.07

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

9207-7357 (16564)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.