Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$34.12

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 43.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$961.71

Total Shares2,217

Combined PnL+$62.1

No3 traders

Total Value$724.42

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL-$27.98

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 40.5¢	$829.4	$889.79	+$60.39	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 59.3¢	$420.3	$400.21	-$20.09	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
0xheavy888	Noavg 58¢	$291.74	$284.19	-$7.54	56% 6347-5081 (11428)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$70.2	$71.91	+$1.71	53% 13576-12017 (25593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 60¢	$41.4	$40.02	-$0.35	54% 13805-11589 (25394)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$829.4

Value

$889.79

PnL

+$60.39

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$420.3

Value

$400.21

PnL

-$20.09

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

0xheavy888

Invested

$291.74

Value

$284.19

PnL

-$7.54

Record

56%

6347-5081 (11428)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.2

Value

$71.91

PnL

+$1.71

Record

53%

13576-12017 (25593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40.02

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.