Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.7K
-$55.73
37.8¢ → 37.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$51.95 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $346.38 | $346.38 | +$0 | 53% 13575-12013 (25588) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $238.6 | $238.6 | +$0 | 52% 1352-1269 (2621) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 37.8¢ | $142.03 | $139.11 | -$2.92 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $65.74 | $64.88 | -$0.86 | 68% 30977-14876 (45853) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,023.21
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$51.95
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$346.38
Value
$346.38
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
13575-12013 (25588)
us391CTRInvested
$238.6
Value
$238.6
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1352-1269 (2621)
Invested
$142.03
Value
$139.11
PnL
-$2.92
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
Invested
$65.74
Value
$64.88
PnL
-$0.86
Record
68%
30977-14876 (45853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.