FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 7.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$13.3K
$426.02
94.8¢ → 98.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 92.7¢ | $6.0K | $6.3K | +$390.11 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
 RN1 | Underavg 98.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$42.37 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$32.53 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
MR MrDouche | Underavg 92¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$81.56 | 75% 907-299 (1206) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 92.7¢ | $268.93 | $282.02 | +$13.09 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 4¢ | $114.98 | $80.5 | -$34.48 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.9¢ | $17.63 | $7.19 | -$14.42 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
Invested
$5,977.89
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$390.11
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
RN1Invested
$3,219.78
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$42.37
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$1,883.42
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$32.53
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$1,442.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$81.56
Record
75%
907-299 (1206)
Invested
$268.93
Value
$282.02
PnL
+$13.09
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
Invested
$114.98
Value
$80.5
PnL
-$34.48
Record
50%
7851-7906 (15757)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.63
Value
$7.19
PnL
-$14.42
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.