Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 5 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 28¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 25

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$72.7

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 27.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares20,318

Combined PnL-$390.28

Over12 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,571

Combined PnL+$462.98

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 61.7¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	+$584.6	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.7¢	$4.4K	$5.3K	+$943.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$359.14
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 17.8¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$612.77	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100	Overavg 87.5¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$529.67	81% 4157-992 (5149)
└ Over leg	Overavg 87.5¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$312.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.9¢	$714.05	$497	-$217.05
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 65¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$190.65	56% 2071-1630 (3701)
└ Over leg	Overavg 65¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$220
└ Under leg	Underavg 25.4¢	$524.94	$495.58	-$29.35
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 22.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$164.34	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.8¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$167.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 74¢	$452.71	$449.65	-$3.06
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 70.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$32.34	65% 12593-6731 (19324)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 57.8¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$264.78	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
MR MrBently	Overavg 67¢	$998.29	$1.1K	+$119.2	53% 467-419 (886)
BI big8betzCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$912.93	— 4-3 (7)
MY myxiCTR	Underavg 31¢	$519.48	$702	+$182.52	67% 273-133 (406)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 78.6¢	$687.73	$687.2	-$0.53	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$582.54	-$512.64	72% 1868-738 (2606)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 23¢	$260	$500	+$240	51% 1023-977 (2000)
latvian.demon	Overavg 58¢	$352	$455.17	+$103.17	54% 554-481 (1035)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 83¢	$432.43	$390.75	-$41.68	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
FO foooool	Overavg 65.2¢	$245.02	$282.9	+$37.87	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 81¢	$120.01	$111.12	-$8.89	65% 1555-832 (2387)
HRTrading	Overavg 82¢	$119.57	$108.66	-$27.92	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 81.4¢	$91.99	$84.79	-$7.2	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
KL kleomarcus<$100	Overavg 81¢	$81	$75	-$6	63% 1530-916 (2446)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 82¢	$25.36	$23.2	-$2.17	50% 621-616 (1237)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,488.35

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$584.6

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Both legs:

Over$4,365.0961.7¢+$943.74

Under$2,123.2630.1¢-$359.14

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,861.89

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$612.77

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,904.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$529.67

Record

81%

4157-992 (5149)

Both legs:

Over$2,190.1587.5¢-$312.62

Under$714.0535.9¢-$217.05

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,824.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$190.65

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

Both legs:

Over$1,30065¢+$220

Under$524.9425.4¢-$29.35

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,477.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$164.34

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Both legs:

Under$1,024.5422.8¢+$167.4

Over$452.7174¢-$3.06

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$1,514.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$32.34

Record

65%

12593-6731 (19324)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$1,024.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$264.78

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$998.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$119.2

Record

53%

467-419 (886)

big8betzCTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$912.93

Record

—

4-3 (7)

myxiCTR

Under

Invested

$519.48

Value

$702

PnL

+$182.52

Record

67%

273-133 (406)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$687.73

Value

$687.2

PnL

-$0.53

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$1,095.18

Value

$582.54

PnL

-$512.64

Record

72%

1868-738 (2606)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$260

Value

$500

PnL

+$240

Record

51%

1023-977 (2000)

latvian.demon

Over

Invested

$352

Value

$455.17

PnL

+$103.17

Record

54%

554-481 (1035)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$432.43

Value

$390.75

PnL

-$41.68

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

foooool

Over

Invested

$245.02

Value

$282.9

PnL

+$37.87

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$120.01

Value

$111.12

PnL

-$8.89

Record

65%

1555-832 (2387)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$119.57

Value

$108.66

PnL

-$27.92

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$91.99

Value

$84.79

PnL

-$7.2

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

kleomarcus<$100

Over

Invested

$81

Value

$75

PnL

-$6

Record

63%

1530-916 (2446)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$25.36

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$2.17

Record

50%

621-616 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.