FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 93¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 25

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$509.95

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 92.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares21,492

Combined PnL-$424.43

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares23,542

Combined PnL+$934.38

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 94¢	$14.5K	$13.7K	+$0.05	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 96.2¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$410.56	81% 4157-992 (5149)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7.6¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$703.89	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 92.3¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$470.11	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.6¢	$508.67	$1.0K	+$496.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 92.3¢	$743.88	$717.03	-$26.85
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 93.1¢	$942.89	$1.0K	+$87.05	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
└ Over leg	Overavg 93.1¢	$765.43	$731.55	-$33.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 6.5¢	$177.46	$298.39	+$120.93
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 92.4¢	$839.84	$919.07	+$79.23	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
└ Over leg	Overavg 92.4¢	$730.1	$703.48	-$26.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.6¢	$109.74	$215.59	+$105.85
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 3.5¢	$70	$220	+$150	56% 2071-1630 (3701)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 92.6¢	$228.44	$219.48	-$8.96	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 8.1¢	$169.65	$212.07	+$42.43	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
└ Under leg	Underavg 8.1¢	$90.51	$122.92	+$32.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 79¢	$79.14	$89.15	+$10.02
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 7¢	$35	$110	+$75	51% 1023-977 (2000)
KL kleomarcus	Overavg 93¢	$102.3	$97.9	-$4.4	63% 1530-916 (2446)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 90¢	$49.95	$49.4	-$0.55	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$5.01	$7.87	+$2.86	57% 897-665 (1562)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$3.19	$5.82	+$2.63	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$14,468.48

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$0.05

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$5,472.88

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$410.56

Record

81%

4157-992 (5149)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,550.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$703.89

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,252.56

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$470.11

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

Both legs:

Under$508.675.6¢+$496.96

Over$743.8892.3¢-$26.85

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$942.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$87.05

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

Both legs:

Over$765.4393.1¢-$33.88

Under$177.466.5¢+$120.93

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$839.84

Value

$919.07

PnL

+$79.23

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

Both legs:

Over$730.192.4¢-$26.62

Under$109.745.6¢+$105.85

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$220

PnL

+$150

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$228.44

Value

$219.48

PnL

-$8.96

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$169.65

Value

$212.07

PnL

+$42.43

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Both legs:

Under$90.518.1¢+$32.41

Over$79.1479¢+$10.02

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$110

PnL

+$75

Record

51%

1023-977 (2000)

kleomarcus

Over

Invested

$102.3

Value

$97.9

PnL

-$4.4

Record

63%

1530-916 (2446)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.4

PnL

-$0.55

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.01

Value

$7.87

PnL

+$2.86

Record

57%

897-665 (1562)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.19

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$2.63

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.