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1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 95¢ · $330 held · ended Oct 25

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$329.84

Combined PnL

$9.01

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$150.52

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$0.17

Over4 traders

Total Value$179.32

Total Shares712

Combined PnL+$9.18

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 69.1¢	$150.7	$150.52	-$0.17	57% 4527-3354 (7881)
SocialistaCTR	Overavg 30¢	$123	$131.2	+$8.2	62% 2322-1429 (3751)
KL kleomarcusCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$29	$32	+$3	63% 1530-916 (2446)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$9.99	$8.88	-$1.11	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$8.15	$7.24	-$0.91	51% 6859-6549 (13408)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$150.7

Value

$150.52

PnL

-$0.17

Record

57%

4527-3354 (7881)

SocialistaCTR

Over

Invested

$123

Value

$131.2

PnL

+$8.2

Record

62%

2322-1429 (3751)

kleomarcusCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29

Value

$32

PnL

+$3

Record

63%

1530-916 (2446)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.99

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$1.11

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$0.91

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.