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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$84.26

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 92¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,095

Combined PnL+$58.03

Under3 traders

Total Value$285.7

Total Shares3,571

Combined PnL+$26.23

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 92.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$58.03	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7.1¢	$250.73	$281.58	+$30.84	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
KL kleomarcus	Overavg 93¢	$204.59	$204.59	-$0	63% 1530-916 (2446)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 93¢	$161.56	$161.56	+$0	65% 1555-832 (2387)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$5.38	$2.15	-$3.23	59% 14202-9839 (24041)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 13.6¢	$3.35	$1.97	-$1.38	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,848.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$58.03

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$250.73

Value

$281.58

PnL

+$30.84

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

kleomarcus

Over

Invested

$204.59

Value

$204.59

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

1530-916 (2446)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$161.56

Value

$161.56

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1555-832 (2387)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.38

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$3.23

Record

59%

14202-9839 (24041)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$1.38

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.