FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 79¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$96.92
76.6¢ → 79¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 76.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$29.56 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
P1 P1kaso | Underavg 76¢ | $999.99 | $872.72 | +$114.7 | 63% 676-390 (1066) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 80.7¢ | $677.99 | $641.36 | -$36.63 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 80.7¢ | $381.62 | $387.7 | +$6.08 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21¢ | $296.37 | $253.67 | -$42.7 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 22¢ | $222.2 | $181.8 | -$40.4 | 59% 14202-9839 (24041) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 77.3¢ | $68.2 | $72.37 | +$4.16 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 20.5¢ | $43.94 | $38.52 | -$5.42 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 21.1¢ | $39 | $33.32 | -$5.68 | 51% 6859-6549 (13408) |
Invested
$1,886.78
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$29.56
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$999.99
Value
$872.72
PnL
+$114.7
Record
63%
676-390 (1066)
Invested
$677.99
Value
$641.36
PnL
-$36.63
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.2
Value
$181.8
PnL
-$40.4
Record
59%
14202-9839 (24041)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$68.2
Value
$72.37
PnL
+$4.16
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
Invested
$43.94
Value
$38.52
PnL
-$5.42
Record
50%
7851-7906 (15757)
Invested
$39
Value
$33.32
PnL
-$5.68
Record
51%
6859-6549 (13408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.