FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $417 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$416.83
$5.68
47.7¢ → 51¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1 P1kaso | Underavg 47¢ | $187.99 | $197.99 | +$2 | 63% 671-390 (1061) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48.6¢ | $171.13 | $174.24 | +$3.11 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $32.59 | $34.32 | +$0.35 | 69% 4216-1907 (6123) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $5.83 | $5.83 | +$0 | 61% 4366-2803 (7169) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $4.46 | +$0.22 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
Invested
$187.99
Value
$197.99
PnL
+$2
Record
63%
671-390 (1061)
Invested
$171.13
Value
$174.24
PnL
+$3.11
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$32.59
Value
$34.32
PnL
+$0.35
Record
69%
4216-1907 (6123)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4366-2803 (7169)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.