FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 0.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$5.6K
-$838.36
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$2.78 | 99% 9244-131 (9375) |
KL kleomarcus<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $24.3 | $24.6 | +$0.3 | 63% 1530-916 (2446) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $5.7 | $6 | -$0.15 | 66% 1429-741 (2170) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 25.3¢ | $479.13 | $0.95 | -$478.18 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 21.9¢ | $297.75 | $0.68 | -$297.07 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $45 | $0.09 | -$44.91 | 51% 6859-6549 (13408) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 26.5¢ | $21.16 | $0.04 | -$21.12 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
Invested
$5,549.45
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$2.78
Record
99%
9244-131 (9375)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
63%
1530-916 (2446)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.15
Record
66%
1429-741 (2170)
Invested
$479.13
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$478.18
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$297.75
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$297.07
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$45
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$44.91
Record
51%
6859-6549 (13408)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.16
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$21.12
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.