Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF (33%) · Real Madrid CF at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Real Madrid CF
6
Real Madrid CF 33%
$4.1K
$65.94
77¢ → 78.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Madrid CF at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Real Madrid CFavg 77¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$65.08 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
P1 P1kaso | Real Madrid CFavg 76.7¢ | $520.94 | $515.94 | +$5.18 | 63% 671-390 (1061) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 23¢ | $66.47 | $62.14 | -$2.89 | 61% 4366-2803 (7169) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 22¢ | $62.59 | $61.17 | -$1.42 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 23¢ | $20.01 | $18.71 | +$0 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 22¢ | $0.56 | $0.55 | -$0.01 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
Invested
$3,418.8
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$65.08
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$520.94
Value
$515.94
PnL
+$5.18
Record
63%
671-390 (1061)
Invested
$66.47
Value
$62.14
PnL
-$2.89
Record
61%
4366-2803 (7169)
Invested
$62.59
Value
$61.17
PnL
-$1.42
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$20.01
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.