Spread: Real Madrid CF (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold FC Barcelona (67%) · FC Barcelona at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
FC Barcelona
3
FC Barcelona 67%
$5.5K
$5.8
98.5¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Barcelona at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | FC Barcelonaavg 98.6¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$8.68 | 52% 1952-1774 (3726) |
P1 P1kaso | FC Barcelonaavg 97.1¢ | $448.17 | $453.71 | +$6.23 | 63% 674-390 (1064) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Real Madrid CFavg 1.4¢ | $61.66 | $74.45 | -$9.1 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.