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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$8.06

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 56¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,728

Combined PnL-$26.19

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,214

Combined PnL+$34.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$65.42	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.7¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$165.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$835.62	$735.35	-$100.27
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.6	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30	53% 101-90 (191)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 50¢	$660.26	$633.85	-$26.41	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 50.2¢	$169.73	$169	-$0.73	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$83.3	$87.55	+$4.25	50% 7831-7882 (15713)
RN1<$100	Noavg 57¢	$37.1	$36.45	-$0.65	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
MO motivatorglCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$11	$11	+$0	50% 171-171 (342)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$11	$11	+$0	71% 17969-7285 (25254)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$2,835.08

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$65.42

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

Both legs:

No$1,999.4651.7¢+$165.7

Yes$835.6250¢-$100.27

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,042.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.6

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,469.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

101-90 (191)

SnakeBall

Invested

$660.26

Value

$633.85

PnL

-$26.41

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$169.73

Value

$169

PnL

-$0.73

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.3

Value

$87.55

PnL

+$4.25

Record

50%

7831-7882 (15713)

RN1<$100

Invested

$37.1

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

motivatorglCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$11

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

171-171 (342)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$11

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.