FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$978.1

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,254

Combined PnL-$983.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.83

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$5.05

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$552.75	57% 897-665 (1562)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$963.8	$1.3K	+$305.17	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.1¢	$149	$654.88	+$505.88
└ No leg	Noavg 91.6¢	$814.8	$614.1	-$200.7
ZX zxc368	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$959.09	-$429.51	99% 9244-131 (9375)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$1.2K	$947.62	-$256.04	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.2¢	$900.53	$728.98	-$171.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$303.13	$218.64	-$84.49
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$12.4	$11.44	-$0.96	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$1.71	$6.43	+$4.72	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 70¢	$4.67	$4.73	+$0.07	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.07	$3.4	+$0.33	58% 32272-23432 (55704)

MinevaJ

Invested

$1,824.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$552.75

Record

57%

897-665 (1562)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$963.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$305.17

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Both legs:

Yes$1497.1¢+$505.88

No$814.891.6¢-$200.7

zxc368

Invested

$1,388.6

Value

$959.09

PnL

-$429.51

Record

99%

9244-131 (9375)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$1,203.66

Value

$947.62

PnL

-$256.04

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Both legs:

No$900.5385.2¢-$171.54

Yes$303.1343¢-$84.49

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$0.96

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$4.72

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.