Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 80¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$14.7K
$67.92
76.5¢ → 79.5¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.8K | $8.0K | +$204.84 | 50% 1880-1863 (3743) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $3.8K | $3.6K | +$60.61 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
SH Shimi1234CTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$197.41 | 39% 71-109 (180) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 80¢ | $550.9 | $548.12 | -$2.78 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 76.9¢ | $205.21 | $208.26 | +$3.05 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $72.48 | $72.03 | -$0.45 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $61.2 | $60.82 | -$0.38 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $34.08 | $34.52 | +$0.44 | 50% 8953-8892 (17845) |
Invested
$7,784.25
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$204.84
Record
50%
1880-1863 (3743)
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,829.8
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$60.61
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
Invested
$2,399.12
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$197.41
Record
39%
71-109 (180)
Invested
$550.9
Value
$548.12
PnL
-$2.78
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Invested
$205.21
Value
$208.26
PnL
+$3.05
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
RN1<$100Invested
$72.48
Value
$72.03
PnL
-$0.45
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$61.2
Value
$60.82
PnL
-$0.38
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
Invested
$34.08
Value
$34.52
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
8953-8892 (17845)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.