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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 98.6¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,217

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.38

Total Shares509

Combined PnL+$7.26

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	$-1.0K	52% 1957-1776 (3733)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 98¢	$419.06	$460.22	+$41.16	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
SL slimjoe	Noavg 97.6¢	$643.96	$336.39	-$307.56	52% 5390-5012 (10402)
MR MrDouche<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$46.62	$24.29	-$22.33	74% 830-296 (1126)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$10.88	$7.38	+$7.26	63% 675-390 (1065)

0F62

Invested

$2,066.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

52%

1957-1776 (3733)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$419.06

Value

$460.22

PnL

+$41.16

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

slimjoe

Invested

$643.96

Value

$336.39

PnL

-$307.56

Record

52%

5390-5012 (10402)

MrDouche<$100

Invested

$46.62

Value

$24.29

PnL

-$22.33

Record

74%

830-296 (1126)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$7.26

Record

63%

675-390 (1065)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.