FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,561

Combined PnL+$476.73

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,845

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 91¢	$3.7K	$3.1K	-$605.61	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 10¢	$664.76	$2.2K	+$1.6K	59% 14202-9839 (24041)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 88.4¢	$655.39	$2.0K	+$1.4K	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$259.45	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 66.5¢	$156.34	$156.57	+$0.23	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 95.6¢	$134.76	$124.85	-$9.91	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
└ Under leg	Underavg 95.6¢	$131.45	$91.44	-$40.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 3.3¢	$3.31	$33.42	+$30.11
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 7.2¢	$12.44	$54.26	+$43.01	58% 1732-1241 (2973)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72<$100	Underavg 95.9¢	$73.33	$50.83	-$22.5	72% 1868-738 (2606)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$1.05	$11.73	+$10.68	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,690.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$605.61

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$664.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

14202-9839 (24041)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$655.39

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,345.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$259.45

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$156.34

Value

$156.57

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$134.76

Value

$124.85

PnL

-$9.91

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

Both legs:

Under$131.4595.6¢-$40.01

Over$3.313.3¢+$30.11

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.44

Value

$54.26

PnL

+$43.01

Record

58%

1732-1241 (2973)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72<$100

Under

Invested

$73.33

Value

$50.83

PnL

-$22.5

Record

72%

1868-738 (2606)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.05

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$10.68

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.