Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 42¢ · $569 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$569.21
-$0.19
39¢ → 41.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 61¢ | $225.09 | $225.09 | +$0 | 61% 4366-2803 (7169) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 39.1¢ | $142.09 | $141.9 | -$0.19 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $140.4 | $140.4 | -$0 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $60.6 | $60.65 | +$0.06 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $1.23 | $1.17 | -$0.06 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$225.09
Value
$225.09
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4366-2803 (7169)
Invested
$142.09
Value
$141.9
PnL
-$0.19
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$140.4
Value
$140.4
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
Invested
$60.6
Value
$60.65
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.06
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.