FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares18,724

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Under4 traders

Total Value$143.76

Total Shares22,760

Combined PnL$-9.6K

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE penguin1125	Overavg 49.2¢	$4.0K	$8.1K	+$4.1K	47% 94-105 (199)
RN1	Overavg 58.6¢	$8.4K	$7.8K	-$635.52	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 98¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$421.24	81% 1874-451 (2325)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 59.7¢	$301.67	$280.4	-$21.27	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 13¢	$57.46	$132.6	-$2.21	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 86.6¢	$124.65	$100.8	-$23.85	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
RE retarb<$100	Overavg 30.3¢	$15.76	$52.05	+$36.3	49% 3294-3434 (6728)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 32¢	$7.54	$12.25	+$4.71	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 38.5¢	$5.9K	$7.63	$-5.9K	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 54¢	$3.1K	$2.89	$-3.1K	72% 1868-738 (2606)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$643.23	$0.64	-$642.59	50% 8992-8924 (17916)

penguin1125

Over

Invested

$4,000

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

47%

94-105 (199)

RN1

Over

Invested

$8,421.98

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$635.52

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$2,738.74

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$421.24

Record

81%

1874-451 (2325)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$301.67

Value

$280.4

PnL

-$21.27

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$57.46

Value

$132.6

PnL

-$2.21

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$124.65

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$23.85

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

retarb<$100

Over

Invested

$15.76

Value

$52.05

PnL

+$36.3

Record

49%

3294-3434 (6728)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$7.54

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$4.71

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$5,873.05

Value

$7.63

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$3,120.57

Value

$2.89

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

72%

1868-738 (2606)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$643.23

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$642.59

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.