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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$82.83

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,678

Combined PnL+$82.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.27

Total Shares751

Combined PnL+$0.38

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.5¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	+$80.07	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 98¢	$390.63	$394.61	+$2.79	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 99.3¢	$126.14	$125.73	-$0.41	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$10.51	$11.27	+$0.38	61% 4694-2945 (7639)

SnakeBall

Invested

$7,152.35

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$80.07

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$390.63

Value

$394.61

PnL

+$2.79

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$126.14

Value

$125.73

PnL

-$0.41

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.51

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0.38

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.