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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$4.36

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,593

Combined PnL+$6.14

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.61

Total Shares356

Combined PnL-$1.78

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.4¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	-$31.88	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$32.24	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 98¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.83	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$22.22	$22.15	-$0.06	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$9.26	$9.61	-$1.78	61% 4647-2913 (7560)

SnakeBall

Invested

$8,478.98

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$31.88

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,837.91

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$32.24

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,859.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.83

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$22.22

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$1.78

Record

61%

4647-2913 (7560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.