Exact Score: FC Barcelona 4 - 3 Real Madrid CF?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.6K
-$14.26
97.7¢ → 97.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$2.06 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 98.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$11.15 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $86.59 | $87.13 | +$0.54 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $7.4 | $5.81 | -$1.58 | 61% 4553-2878 (7431) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $4.72 | $4.72 | -$0 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$2,137.06
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$2.06
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
Invested
$1,392.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$11.15
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$86.59
Value
$87.13
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$1.58
Record
61%
4553-2878 (7431)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.72
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.