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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.12

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 95.6¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,076

Combined PnL+$6.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$153.82

Total Shares3,344

Combined PnL-$8.82

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.4¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$8.67	50% 8710-8632 (17342)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95.9¢	$836.64	$833.85	-$2.79	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$154.3	$153.82	-$8.82	61% 4343-2794 (7137)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 95¢	$102.4	$50.63	+$0.81	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$6.67	$6.68	+$0	58% 1321-965 (2286)

SnakeBall

Invested

$3,953

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$8.67

Record

50%

8710-8632 (17342)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$836.64

Value

$833.85

PnL

-$2.79

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$154.3

Value

$153.82

PnL

-$8.82

Record

61%

4343-2794 (7137)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$102.4

Value

$50.63

PnL

+$0.81

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.