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4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$8.12

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 97.1¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,980

Combined PnL+$8.12

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.1¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0.81	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$2.89	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96.2¢	$432.9	$436.95	+$4.28	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$54.26	$54.38	+$0.14	54% 13824-11602 (25426)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,550.5

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0.81

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,790.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$2.89

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$432.9

Value

$436.95

PnL

+$4.28

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54.26

Value

$54.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.