Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$7.0K
-$3.83
93.8¢ → 92.8¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$4.47 | 50% 8953-8892 (17845) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$5.3 | 50% 7831-7882 (15713) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0.71 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94.1¢ | $619.12 | $614.9 | -$4.22 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 93.7¢ | $271.77 | $271.15 | -$0.62 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 93.8¢ | $163.34 | $162.81 | -$0.53 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
Invested
$3,105.62
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$4.47
Record
50%
8953-8892 (17845)
Invested
$1,427.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$5.3
Record
50%
7831-7882 (15713)
RN1Invested
$1,375.99
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.71
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$619.12
Value
$614.9
PnL
-$4.22
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Invested
$271.77
Value
$271.15
PnL
-$0.62
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
HRTradingInvested
$163.34
Value
$162.81
PnL
-$0.53
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.