Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$7.2K
$27.76
94¢ → 94.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.9¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$24.75 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$2.61 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.1¢ | $240.9 | $241.67 | +$0.77 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 93.8¢ | $142.59 | $143.48 | +$0.89 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
DJ djdjdjCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $16.25 | $15 | -$1.25 | 37% 98-169 (267) |
Invested
$4,987.86
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$24.75
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
Invested
$1,763.83
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$2.61
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$240.9
Value
$241.67
PnL
+$0.77
Record
50%
7770-7819 (15589)
Invested
$142.59
Value
$143.48
PnL
+$0.89
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.25
Record
37%
98-169 (267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.