Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$2.83

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL+$2.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$153.3

Total Shares2,190

Combined PnL+$0.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	50% 7622-7775 (15397)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 92.4¢	$177.33	$178.56	+$2.19	54% 13658-11474 (25132)
DJ djdjdjCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$148.68	$148.68	+$0	36% 95-169 (264)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$84.02	$83.78	-$0.24	61% 4343-2794 (7137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$61.46	$61.46	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 94¢	$22.56	$22.32	-$0.24
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$3.98	$4.62	+$0.64	58% 31334-22653 (53987)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,383.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7622-7775 (15397)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$177.33

Value

$178.56

PnL

+$2.19

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

djdjdjCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.68

Value

$148.68

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

95-169 (264)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.02

Value

$83.78

PnL

-$0.24

Record

61%

4343-2794 (7137)

Both legs:

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.64

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.