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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$158.77

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,493

Combined PnL-$182.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$158.08

Total Shares2,679

Combined PnL+$23.68

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$171.47	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 95.4¢	$281.49	$277.6	-$3.89	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$134.4	$158.08	+$23.68	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$72.46	-$3.85	97% 2036-57 (2093)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$61.94	$58.7	-$3.24	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

RN1

Invested

$3,995.47

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$171.47

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$281.49

Value

$277.6

PnL

-$3.89

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.4

Value

$158.08

PnL

+$23.68

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Invested

$76.31

Value

$72.46

PnL

-$3.85

Record

97%

2036-57 (2093)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$61.94

Value

$58.7

PnL

-$3.24

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.