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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$21.82

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,426

Combined PnL+$25.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$34.96

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$3.5

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 97.1¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$12.39	50% 7831-7882 (15713)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$12.21	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 97¢	$210.42	$211.14	+$0.72	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$24.86	$34.96	-$3.5	61% 4647-2913 (7560)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$5,485.27

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$12.39

Record

50%

7831-7882 (15713)

SnakeBall

Invested

$3,450.38

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$12.21

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$210.42

Value

$211.14

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.86

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$3.5

Record

61%

4647-2913 (7560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.