Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$500.04

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 95.9¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,750

Combined PnL-$500.04

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.4K	$896.41	-$479.65	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 96.3¢	$182.04	$181.62	-$0.42	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 96¢	$76.8	$76.76	-$0.04	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97¢	$49.47	$32.13	-$17.34	52% 2555-2353 (4908)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$7.38	$4.78	-$2.6	55% 1434-1189 (2623)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,376.05

Value

$896.41

PnL

-$479.65

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$182.04

Value

$181.62

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$76.8

Value

$76.76

PnL

-$0.04

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

korda77<$100

Invested

$49.47

Value

$32.13

PnL

-$17.34

Record

52%

2555-2353 (4908)

merod<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$2.6

Record

55%

1434-1189 (2623)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.