Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 3 Real Madrid CF?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$10.5K
$81.99
98¢ → 96.7¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$44.23 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$31.25 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$83.07 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.07 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $147.75 | $149.1 | +$1.35 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
RI RichieRicher | Noavg 96.8¢ | $129.23 | $132.7 | +$3.47 | 53% 571-516 (1087) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $9.63 | $9.64 | +$0 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
RN1Invested
$3,427.92
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$44.23
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$2,969.21
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$31.25
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$2,638.84
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$83.07
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$1,071.92
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.07
Record
50%
7851-7906 (15757)
VeryLucky888Invested
$147.75
Value
$149.1
PnL
+$1.35
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
Invested
$129.23
Value
$132.7
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
571-516 (1087)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.63
Value
$9.64
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.