Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$8.8K
-$119.58
96¢ → 92.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.2¢ | $6.5K | $6.3K | -$203.15 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$72.54 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.8¢ | $606.86 | $609.78 | +$2.91 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $292.35 | $293.7 | +$1.8 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $174.22 | $180.54 | +$6.32 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 97.9¢ | $146.85 | $146.85 | +$0 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
Invested
$6,458.33
Value
$6.3K
PnL
-$203.15
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$1,260.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$72.54
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$606.86
Value
$609.78
PnL
+$2.91
Record
50%
7851-7906 (15757)
VeryLucky888Invested
$292.35
Value
$293.7
PnL
+$1.8
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
RN1CTRInvested
$174.22
Value
$180.54
PnL
+$6.32
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$146.85
Value
$146.85
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.