Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.9K
-$16.64
97.6¢ → 97.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.6¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$12.28 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 97.8¢ | $153.55 | $153.62 | +$0.08 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $49.93 | $32.13 | -$17.8 | 52% 2649-2428 (5077) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $33.29 | $21.42 | -$11.87 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.1 | $1.05 | -$0.05 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.04 | $0.76 | +$0.71 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
Invested
$3,633.13
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$12.28
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$153.55
Value
$153.62
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$49.93
Value
$32.13
PnL
-$17.8
Record
52%
2649-2428 (5077)
Invested
$33.29
Value
$21.42
PnL
-$11.87
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.76
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.