Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$30.1K

Combined PnL

-$109.83

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 97.6¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$29.9K

Total Shares30,520

Combined PnL-$150.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$139.02

Total Shares6,792

Combined PnL+$40.33

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.6¢	$25.0K	$24.8K	-$174.7	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
RN1	Noavg 98¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$5.5	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 98.1¢	$4.4K	$2.1K	+$30.06	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$74.69	$115.02	+$40.33	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$31.06	$31.06	-$0.02	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
CR Crock95CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$24	$24	+$0	57% 241-184 (425)

SnakeBall

Invested

$24,987.36

Value

$24.8K

PnL

-$174.7

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

RN1

Invested

$3,015.61

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$5.5

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,417.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.06

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.69

Value

$115.02

PnL

+$40.33

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$31.06

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

Crock95CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$24

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

241-184 (425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.