Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 16¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$7.6K
$1.2K
15.8¢ → 15.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $4.8K | $4.7K | -$150.87 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$1.4K | 63% 671-390 (1061) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$32.47 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $557.16 | $539.75 | -$17.41 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $27 | $26.16 | -$0.84 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
AM Amit11111CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $7.75 | $7.5 | -$0.25 | 53% 112-99 (211) |
Invested
$4,827.78
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$150.87
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
Invested
$1,032.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
63%
671-390 (1061)
Invested
$1,039
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$32.47
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$557.16
Value
$539.75
PnL
-$17.41
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$27
Value
$26.16
PnL
-$0.84
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$7.75
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
112-99 (211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.