FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 56¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 25

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$179.81

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares26,360

Combined PnL-$81.85

Under10 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares17,030

Combined PnL+$261.66

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cs2.quant	Overavg 55.8¢	$14.7K	$14.6K	-$81.85	57% 64-48 (112)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 42.3¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$112.95	50% 1855-1850 (3705)
NO Novelty8CTR	Underavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$75	73% 569-207 (776)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.56	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$745.94	$712.5	+$39.01	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Underavg 42¢	$436.09	$462.04	+$25.96	60% 3003-2007 (5010)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Underavg 45¢	$310.75	$338.38	+$27.62	59% 3066-2120 (5186)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$310.43	$310.61	+$0.18	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$98.69	$95.49	-$3.2	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$90.73	$87.69	-$3.04	61% 4558-2887 (7445)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.5	$24.5	-$0.25	51% 87-82 (169)
JI jiafan<$100	Overavg 52¢	$4.24	$4.24	+$0	61% 1318-837 (2155)

cs2.quant

Over

Invested

$14,707.1

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$81.85

Record

57%

64-48 (112)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$2,217.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$112.95

Record

50%

1855-1850 (3705)

Novelty8CTR

Under

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

73%

569-207 (776)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$1,091.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.56

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$745.94

Value

$712.5

PnL

+$39.01

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

NotradecopyCTR

Under

Invested

$436.09

Value

$462.04

PnL

+$25.96

Record

60%

3003-2007 (5010)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Under

Invested

$310.75

Value

$338.38

PnL

+$27.62

Record

59%

3066-2120 (5186)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$310.43

Value

$310.61

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.69

Value

$95.49

PnL

-$3.2

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.73

Value

$87.69

PnL

-$3.04

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

87-82 (169)

jiafan<$100

Over

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1318-837 (2155)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.