FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 3.5 Corners

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$3.13

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 57.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$745.6

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL+$3.08

Under4 traders

Total Value$543.04

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL+$0.05

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 55.9¢	$634.52	$635.6	+$1.08	61% 4558-2887 (7445)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 44¢	$233.15	$233.15	-$0	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$245.51	$220.01	+$3.27	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
P1 P1kaso	Overavg 54¢	$108	$110	+$2	63% 675-390 (1065)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$91.51	$88.29	-$3.22	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.6	+$0	51% 87-82 (169)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$634.52

Value

$635.6

PnL

+$1.08

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$233.15

Value

$233.15

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$245.51

Value

$220.01

PnL

+$3.27

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

P1kaso

Over

Invested

$108

Value

$110

PnL

+$2

Record

63%

675-390 (1065)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.51

Value

$88.29

PnL

-$3.22

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

87-82 (169)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.