Will Hwaseong FC win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 78¢ · $407 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$407.25
-$31.67
63.6¢ → 77.5¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 56¢ | $173.97 | $152.22 | -$21.75 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
MY myxi | Yesavg 77¢ | $111.65 | $112.38 | +$0.72 | 68% 264-122 (386) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $86.96 | $108.17 | +$21.21 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $26.68 | $18.67 | -$8 | 63% 22445-13258 (35703) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $16.83 | $11 | -$5.83 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 55¢ | $186.99 | $4.81 | -$18.02 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
Invested
$173.97
Value
$152.22
PnL
-$21.75
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
Invested
$111.65
Value
$112.38
PnL
+$0.72
Record
68%
264-122 (386)
Invested
$86.96
Value
$108.17
PnL
+$21.21
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$26.68
Value
$18.67
PnL
-$8
Record
63%
22445-13258 (35703)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$11
PnL
-$5.83
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
VeryLucky888Invested
$186.99
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$18.02
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.