Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $579 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$579.33
-$6.3
87.8¢ → 78¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI pieped | No | $286.81 | $286.81 | -$20.22 | 43% 50-67 (117) |
SI simpleman | Noavg 88¢ | $249.58 | $261.31 | +$11.73 | 47% 450-510 (960) |
 AllByMyseIf<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $29.01 | $31.21 | +$2.2 | 65% 661-354 (1015) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.