Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SKA St. Petersburg, while the market favors CSKA Moscow (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. CSKA Moscow
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SKA St. Petersburg (100%) · SKA St. Petersburg at 44¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
SKA St. Petersburg
5
SKA St. Petersburg 100%
$7.4K
$59.99
43.6¢ → 44¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSKA St. Petersburg at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors CSKA Moscow 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 one8tyfiveCTR | SKA St. Petersburgavg 44¢ | $4.4K | $4.4K | +$0 | 65% 2033-1098 (3131) |
 beet420CTR | SKA St. Petersburgavg 43¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$45.16 | 53% 246-217 (463) |
BB bbbetkCTR | SKA St. Petersburgavg 44¢ | $660 | $660 | +$0 | 50% 135-134 (269) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | SKA St. Petersburgavg 42¢ | $168 | $176 | +$8 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
SL slimjoeCTR | SKA St. Petersburgavg 42.1¢ | $148.89 | $155.72 | +$6.84 | 52% 5338-4942 (10280) |
one8tyfiveCTRInvested
$4,400
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
2033-1098 (3131)
beet420CTRInvested
$1,941.75
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$45.16
Record
53%
246-217 (463)
Invested
$660
Value
$660
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
135-134 (269)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$168
Value
$176
PnL
+$8
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$148.89
Value
$155.72
PnL
+$6.84
Record
52%
5338-4942 (10280)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.