Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lada Togliatti, while the market favors HC Sochi (91%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. HC Sochi
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lada Togliatti (80%) · Lada Togliatti at 9.5¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Lada Togliatti
5
Lada Togliatti 80%
$7.0K
$721.28
50¢ → 9.5¢
-81% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLada Togliatti at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors HC Sochi 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 one8tyfiveCTR | Lada Togliattiavg 51¢ | $5.1K | $5.6K | +$550 | 65% 2033-1099 (3132) |
OM omnibus-076daa | HC Sochiavg 46.3¢ | $521.44 | $493.11 | -$28.33 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Lada Togliattiavg 31.7¢ | $201.49 | $359.01 | +$157.53 | 53% 2370-2107 (4477) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lada Togliattiavg 51.7¢ | $310 | $339 | +$29 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Lada Togliattiavg 52¢ | $150.89 | $163.98 | +$13.08 | 52% 5352-4963 (10315) |
one8tyfiveCTRInvested
$5,100
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$550
Record
65%
2033-1099 (3132)
Invested
$521.44
Value
$493.11
PnL
-$28.33
Record
59%
13855-9624 (23479)
Invested
$201.49
Value
$359.01
PnL
+$157.53
Record
53%
2370-2107 (4477)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$310
Value
$339
PnL
+$29
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$150.89
Value
$163.98
PnL
+$13.08
Record
52%
5352-4963 (10315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.