Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Avangard Omsk, while the market favors HC Dynamo Moscow (53%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Avangard Omsk
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Avangard Omsk (100%) · Avangard Omsk at 47¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Avangard Omsk
4
Avangard Omsk 100%
$10.4K
-$210.72
48¢ → 47¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAvangard Omsk at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors HC Dynamo Moscow 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | Avangard Omskavg 48¢ | $9.6K | $9.4K | -$200.3 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
BB bbbetkCTR | Avangard Omskavg 48¢ | $720 | $705 | +$7.5 | 49% 137-140 (277) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Avangard Omskavg 50¢ | $150 | $144 | -$9 | 51% 5993-5751 (11744) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Avangard Omskavg 49.9¢ | $158.64 | $141 | -$8.92 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$9,614.4
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$200.3
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$720
Value
$705
PnL
+$7.5
Record
49%
137-140 (277)
Invested
$150
Value
$144
PnL
-$9
Record
51%
5993-5751 (11744)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$158.64
Value
$141
PnL
-$8.92
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.