KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lotte Giants (67%) · Lotte Giants at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 18
⚖️
Neutral
Lotte Giants
6
Lotte Giants 67%
$2.0K
$665.86
43.7¢ → 92.3¢
+111% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLotte Giants at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
95h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Lotte Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Lotte Giantsavg 38¢ | $727.54 | $1.7K | +$977.4 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Lotte Giantsavg 98.8¢ | $186.83 | $166.66 | -$18.37 | 95% 13835-790 (14625) |
 RN1<$100 | Lotte Giantsavg 58¢ | $28.59 | $43.42 | +$15.6 | 55% 43048-35397 (78445) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Lotte Giantsavg 41¢ | $15.21 | $43.17 | +$27.95 | 61% 4343-2794 (7137) |
 BasquetipsterCTR | Kia Tigersavg 74.1¢ | $267.88 | $43.02 | -$232.28 | 70% 1544-670 (2214) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Kia Tigersavg 58¢ | $128.76 | $26.42 | -$104.45 | 52% 5321-4926 (10247) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$727.54
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$977.4
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$186.83
Value
$166.66
PnL
-$18.37
Record
95%
13835-790 (14625)
RN1<$100Invested
$28.59
Value
$43.42
PnL
+$15.6
Record
55%
43048-35397 (78445)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$43.17
PnL
+$27.95
Record
61%
4343-2794 (7137)
BasquetipsterCTRInvested
$267.88
Value
$43.02
PnL
-$232.28
Record
70%
1544-670 (2214)
Invested
$128.76
Value
$26.42
PnL
-$104.45
Record
52%
5321-4926 (10247)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.