Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Samsung Lions, while the market favors Kia Tigers (65%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

KBO Playoff: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Samsung Lions (62%) · Samsung Lions at 35¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2

Kia Tigers65¢Samsung Lions35¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Samsung Lions

Consensus Traders

Samsung Lions 62%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$387.88

Smart Money Entry

27.3¢ → 35¢

+28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSamsung Lions at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Samsung Lions

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Kia Tigers 65%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kia Tigers65%

Samsung Lions35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Samsung Lions8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,674

Combined PnL+$815.32

Kia Tigers5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,901

Combined PnL-$427.44

Samsung Lions — 62%Kia Tigers — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 35.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.3	47% 2249-2495 (4744)
poshposhCTR	Samsung Lionsavg 22.3¢	$515.05	$684.56	+$169.51	62% 8618-5270 (13888)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Kia Tigersavg 89.6¢	$908.29	$628.37	-$279.92	76% 83-26 (109)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 32¢	$518.66	$551.08	+$32.42	67% 3553-1783 (5336)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 10.1¢	$714.36	$503.73	+$365.7	78% 47-13 (60)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81	Kia Tigersavg 76.9¢	$749.69	$478.76	-$106.92	57% 238-176 (414)
SL slimjoeCTR	Samsung Lionsavg 10.8¢	$94.89	$332.5	+$237.61	51% 5910-5681 (11591)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 34¢	$150.57	$155.38	+$4.81	55% 697-571 (1268)
VeryLucky888CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 34.7¢	$120.31	$116.84	-$2.47	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Kia Tigersavg 88.9¢	$88.95	$62	-$26.95	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 41¢	$34.95	$32.39	-$2.56	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
RO Rock.San<$100	Kia Tigersavg 80¢	$24	$18.6	-$5.4	89% 10904-1389 (12293)
ZX zxc368<$100	Kia Tigersavg 93¢	$24.75	$16.5	-$8.25	99% 10740-156 (10896)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$1,319.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.3

Record

47%

2249-2495 (4744)

poshposhCTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$515.05

Value

$684.56

PnL

+$169.51

Record

62%

8618-5270 (13888)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Kia Tigers

Invested

$908.29

Value

$628.37

PnL

-$279.92

Record

76%

83-26 (109)

Bagwell306CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$518.66

Value

$551.08

PnL

+$32.42

Record

67%

3553-1783 (5336)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$714.36

Value

$503.73

PnL

+$365.7

Record

78%

47-13 (60)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81

Kia Tigers

Invested

$749.69

Value

$478.76

PnL

-$106.92

Record

57%

238-176 (414)

slimjoeCTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$94.89

Value

$332.5

PnL

+$237.61

Record

51%

5910-5681 (11591)

pltrkr111CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$150.57

Value

$155.38

PnL

+$4.81

Record

55%

697-571 (1268)

VeryLucky888CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$120.31

Value

$116.84

PnL

-$2.47

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

Forecastication2<$100

Kia Tigers

Invested

$88.95

Value

$62

PnL

-$26.95

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$34.95

Value

$32.39

PnL

-$2.56

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

Rock.San<$100

Kia Tigers

Invested

$24

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

89%

10904-1389 (12293)

zxc368<$100

Kia Tigers

Invested

$24.75

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$8.25

Record

99%

10740-156 (10896)

Research grade

NeutralSamsung Lions at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Samsung Lions

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Kia Tigers 65%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Samsung Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$168.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

268.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.