KBO Playoff: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Kia Tigers (33%) · Kia Tigers at 54¢ · $397 held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Kia Tigers
3
Kia Tigers 33%
$396.92
$6.88
Research grade
NeutralKia Tigers at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306 | Kia Tigersavg 54¢ | $201.88 | $201.88 | +$0 | 67% 3210-1586 (4796) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Samsung Lionsavg 44.4¢ | $168.8 | $174.8 | +$6 | 61% 4723-2962 (7685) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Samsung Lionsavg 44¢ | $19.36 | $20.24 | +$0.88 | 48% 946-1016 (1962) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.