Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Astana win on 2026-10-25?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 40¢ · $394 held · ended Oct 25

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$393.75

Combined PnL

-$14.35

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$313.2

Total Shares723

Combined PnL-$28.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$80.55

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$14.63

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$342.18	$313.2	-$28.98	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$43.5	$54	+$10.5	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$13.62	$14.55	+$0.93	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$8.8	$12	+$3.2	50% 7766-7815 (15581)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$342.18

Value

$313.2

PnL

-$28.98

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.5

Value

$54

PnL

+$10.5

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.62

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.93

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.2

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.